F.A.Q.

2010-06-06T22:25:00.000-04:00

Why the heck is this F.A.Q. the only thing on your blog?
It's not! If you look below the title of this blog, at the top of the screen, there's a section called "Check These Pages for Details". Those links take you to separate pages in the Alpha Capper blog consisting of exactly what the names imply.

Who the heck are you?
My name is Jonathan, I am the Sim Capper. I'm just some punk that likes to predict the future. I started way back when I was a junior in college when I wrote a play-by-play NFL simulator. I got some great results so I started a blog to post the predictions and some fun stats articles. After a season or two of football, I decided to try my hand at the NBA. It turned out to be ridiculously successful ... that is, when I had the time to keep posting five months of daily predictions (alas, work takes priority). Meanwhile, NFL is still going strong. I invite you to check out NFL and NBA Sim Capper.

What the heck is this blog about?
I recently graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with a degree in Economics. The degree was very valuable if you overlook the irrationality of a strictly rational economics syllabus, but I digress. Perhaps the most important bit of knowledge that I left the University with was that of expectations (in the Wikipedia article, cross out the word "rational" as hard as you can wherever you see it ... for more information on non-rational, ie. behavioral economics, read the extremely awesome and eye-opening book Animal Spirits by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller. Predictibly Irrational by Dan Ariely is at least as good. But I digress again). My hypothesis is that given enough people with enough estimations, guestimations, and approximations, it is possible to interpret the future. In the case of this blog, the algorithms interpret the expected value of the stock market and unemployment. Expectations shape the future ... if you look the right way in the right direction, you can see that shape before it materializes. Bear in mind that this is still just an experiment.

Why the heck is this blog called "Alpha Capper"?
In investment terms, alpha is the return on investment in excess of the return on investment of a benchmark. Usually, the benchmark is an index like the S&P or Dow Jones Industrial Average. Since Alpha Capper only bets on the direction of the Dow, any return that Alpha Capper generates in excess of a buy-and-hold strategy of the index is inherently alpha.

What the heck is a "Prediction Market"?
A brief introduction to prediction markets, along with educational resources and links to actual prediction markets can be found in the aptly-named Prediction Markets page.

Where the heck is the monthly Dow estimate?
a) First look at the monthly estimate page. If all you see is "Not Enough Data", then:
b) Monthly estimates require a certain amount of volume, ie. number of trades in the prediction markets, before the algorithms can be accurately applied. The monthly estimates usually begin sometime in the second week of the month.

What the heck am I supposed to do with all of this information?
Disclaimer: Information found on Alpha Capper is for entertainment purposes only. These are in no way meant to be recommendations. Information is provided without warranties of any kind, either express or implied. Alpha Capper is not responsible for any losses you might incur. However, Alpha Capper proudly takes credit for any gains you may realize.

Again, any financial decisions you make are yours and yours alone.

Why the heck are you wasting so much time on this project?
a) Because I love wasting time on projects like this. Although projects like this are never a waste of time. Excelsior!
b) Because I am a proud member of the 17.1% of U-6 unemployed citizens, of course. (But I'm actually just a U-2) So naturally I have plenty of time ~~to waste~~.

Which brings me to my next point: I am looking for a job at a hedge fund or investment firm as a research or quant analyst. Ideal locations include New York/Stamford/Greenwich, Houston, Chicago, and Miami. And in case you couldn't tell, I'm very interested in Behavioral Finance. Resume available on request, when requested with a work address.

How the heck am I supposed to contact you?
Send me an email at simcapper@gmail.com. I'm always happy to answer questions.

Welcome to Alpha Capper

2010-05-31T10:49:00.000-04:00

Welcome to Alpha Capper, the newest site in the Sim Capper family. Harnessing the power of expectations and collective wisdom, Alpha Capper uses prediction markets and novel algorithms to predict the stock market, unemployment, and more. You can follow the Alpha Capper Index by clicking on the "Page" links above.